USDA's latest projections point to a significant supply squeeze for US wheat heading into the 2026/27 market year. Winter wheat production is forecast to fall 25% from last year — a sharp decline primarily attributed to reduced Hard Red Winter wheat production, one of the largest wheat classes grown in the United States and a key input for bread-making globally.
The drop in output stems from a combination of factors working against US wheat farmers this season, including smaller planted acreage and lower yields across key growing regions. With domestic supply running tighter, total US wheat use for the year is also projected to decline, primarily due to reduced feed and residual use as overall available stocks shrink.
The pricing impact is direct and significant: USDA projects the 2026/27 season-average farm price at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from the prior year. That increase reflects both a lower stocks-to-use ratio domestically and a knock-on effect from higher projected US corn prices, since wheat and corn often compete for the same acreage and serve overlapping uses in livestock feed.
US wheat exports are also expected to feel the pinch, with projected 2026/27 shipments down 135 million bushels from the prior year as exportable supplies shrink and US prices climb relative to global competitors. Projected ending stocks are forecast to fall 18% year-over-year, the tightest cushion American wheat farmers and buyers have seen in some time.
Importantly, this is a domestic story rather than a global one. Even as American supplies shrink and prices rise at home, total global wheat trade is moving in the opposite direction, easing as demand softens elsewhere in the world — a reminder that local supply shocks and global trade trends don't always move in the same direction.