The Netherlands' ambitious €20 billion plan to slash nitrogen pollution has fallen short of its 2035 targets, forcing the government to revive the politically explosive debate over compulsory livestock reductions.
The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) delivered the blow to the cabinet's plan, concluding that while the package is a significant step forward, the measures currently outlined leave a gap that will require a blanket cut in farmers' livestock rights. The agency estimates an across-the-board reduction of 5% to 10% in the permits that cap how many animals a farm may hold is necessary to meet its climate obligations.
Agriculture Minister Jaimi van Essen has called such a move a "last resort" and a "no-go for the cabinet," stressing that the government prefers voluntary measures. However, the PBL's assessment has now placed the issue at the centre of the political agenda. The plan's primary goal is to cut agricultural ammonia emissions by 42% to 46% by 2035, against 2019 levels.
The findings have deepened the country's long-running nitrogen crisis. Under the government's proposal, farmers near protected nature areas face zoning restrictions or closure. The cabinet plans to establish 1-kilometre low-nitrogen zones around 15 major nature reserves and 500-metre zones around 85 others. Farms in these areas will have to innovate, downsize, relocate, or shut down entirely.
However, farmer groups and right-wing opposition parties have condemned the plan, arguing it places a disproportionate burden on agriculture. The farmers' party BBB and the farm lobby LTO have called the proposed livestock cuts unacceptable. In response, the government has stressed that it will continue negotiating with stakeholders.
The political stakes are high. The ruling coalition is a minority administration, so it needs to secure support from either left-wing or right-wing parties to pass the legislation.
This week, the left-wing party PRO pledged its support but insisted that the plans not be watered down. PRO MP Laura Bromet warned that any weakening would jeopardise the agreement. This stance angered opposition parties, including JA21, which withdrew its support shortly after midnight.
The political gridlock has already spilled onto the streets. Farmers, led by groups such as Agractie and the Farmers Defence Force, have staged protests and tractor blockades across the country. A national demonstration has been announced for Den Bosch on 14 August, with further protests planned on Prinsjesdag in September.
The nitrogen crisis stems from a 2019 Council of State ruling that found the government's strategy breached EU directives on protecting vulnerable habitats. Successive cabinets have struggled to find a solution.